Rising peak demand: As temperatures rise, efforts are being made to capture idle capacity | Business news

Although India added a record renewable energy capacity of over 18 GW in FY24, variability in renewable energy generation puts pressure on baseload capacity, including thermal energy, especially during the evening hours with little sunlight and high demand.

On April 12, the Ministry of Energy invoked Article 11 of the Electricity Act 2003 to instruct 15 imported coal-based thermal power plants to operate at full capacity until October 15. “The government may specify that a generating company, in extraordinary circumstances, operate and maintain any power station in accordance with the directions of the government,” said Article 11 of the law.

The ministry had earlier invoked the section in March 2023 in a bid to prevent load shedding in case of a sudden surge in demand. The instruction was extended several times, including in October 2023, when the ministry asked thermal power plants to remain fully operational until June 30, 2024. The latest step extends the timeline by another three and a half months.

In the same article, the ministry also ordered idle gas thermal power plants to operate from May to the end of June, signaling its cautious approach to avoiding power outages as the country braces for record-breaking heat waves. According to the India Meteorological Department (IMD), the number of heat wave days is likely to be above normal in most parts of the country till May, especially in states like Telangana, Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka and parts of Maharashtra and Odisha.

Increasing renewable capacity

Even as the share of installed capacity of renewable energy sources such as solar and wind has increased to almost 29 percent of total capacity in FY24 from 20 percent in FY20, these energy sources do not have high utilization rates as they are variable in nature. The capacity utilization factor (CUF) of a renewable energy plant indicates the average production compared to the installed capacity in a certain period. CUF depends on natural factors such as irradiation and wind speeds, as well as the efficiency of technologies used to harness solar and wind energy.

According to a NITI Aayog report, the CUF for solar power capacity ranges from 1.3 to 27 percent and for wind power from 13.4 percent to 32 percent across Indian states. Compared to solar and wind power, the utilization rate of coal and lignite-based thermal power plants, which is indicated by the plant load factor (PLF), was almost 69 percent in FY24 to February. In FY24, the average PLF of all thermal power plants in the country was the highest in a decade.

To reduce dependence on thermal power plants to meet demand during peak hours, energy storage systems are used to absorb energy from solar and wind power plants during non-peak hours, usually in the morning, and release it during peak hours, usually late in the afternoon. In FY30, a NITI Aayog report estimates India’s energy storage needs at around 60 GW, including 41 GW of battery energy storage systems (BESS) and 19 GW of pumped storage hydropower (PSH), requiring an investment of over Rs 2.4 lakh crore is needed. India currently has an installed PSH capacity of 4.7 GW, with another 2.8 GW under construction. In February this year, the Solar Energy Corporation of India (SECI) commissioned India’s largest BESS capacity of 120 MWh in Chhattisgarh.

Peak supply and demand

Although the gap between peak demand and peak supply has decreased in recent years, from an average of -5.9 percent between FY10 and FY19 to -1.5 percent between FY20 and FY24, it could increase again if the increase in renewable capacity does not is sufficiently taken care of. supplemented with energy storage infrastructure. The peak shortage measures the difference between peak demand and peak supply.

In FY23, the peak deficit was -8.7 GW, 4 percent of the peak demand of 216 GW in the month of April. In FY24, peak demand rose to 243 GW in September, but the deficit was limited to 1.4 percent due to a cooler-than-expected summer caused by unusual rainfall.

In terms of net electricity deficit, April recorded the highest deficit of 2 percent, followed by June and January with 0.6 percent each in FY23. In FY24, August recorded the highest deficit of 0.6 percent, followed by 0.5 percent in January and 0.4 percent in October.