Imran Khan’s conflict with Pakistan’s military establishment, and his political future · Global Voices

It is believed that the ‘military establishment’ manipulates political affairs

PTI Chairman Imran Khan in June 2023. Image via Wikimedia Commons by Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf. (CC BY 3.0).

On April 1 this year, a Pakistani court suspended former Prime Minister Imran Khan’s 14-year prison sentence for illegally selling state gifts given to him by foreign dignitaries during his time in office. He was convicted along with his wife Bushra Bibi on January 31, 2024, a week before the February 8 general election, which Khan’s party said was rigged.

Previously, on February 3, 2024, Khan and his wife were given a seven-year prison sentence for violating Islamic marriage laws. Khan, who has been detained since August 2023, faces numerous lawsuits and trials aimed at keeping him out of the election campaign and possibly returning to power.

A message on April 7 Khan’s account on X (formerly Twitter) revealed his conversations with journalists in Adiala prison, where he accused Pakistani army chief General Asim Munir of orchestrating state affairs and being behind the case involving state donations against him and his wife. Khan further alleged that an assassination plot took place against him on March 18, 2024, alleging that his party’s mandate was manipulated to exert control over PTI and Khan.

Khan’s recent tweet has sparked significant controversy on social media, sparking debates and speculations about the political future of PTI and Imran Khan. Social media platform X remains banned in Pakistan since the February 8 elections due to national security concerns.

During Khan’s tenure, in July 2019, Lieutenant General Asim Munir was removed from his post as Director General of Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI), Pakistan’s intelligence agency, just eight months after his appointment. In November 2022, Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif appointed Asim Munir as Chief of the Army Staff, just three days before Munir’s planned retirement. Sharif claimed in May 2023 that Khan removed Munir as head of ISI in 2019 because the spy chief confronted him with evidence of corruption involving his wife.

From cricket captain to politician

Imran Khan is an accomplished cricketer who captained the country’s cricket team and led them to victory in the 1992 Cricket World Cup.

Khan began his political career by founding the centrist Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) in April 1996. It took 16 years for the party to gain a significant presence in the National Assembly after the 2013 general elections, when it moved to emerged as the second party. largest party in terms of popular vote.

Over the past decade, Khan has continued to organize sit-ins, lead long marches and engage supporters through “container politics.” Khan’s rhetoric and clever use of social media to reach the younger generation have helped strengthen PTI’s position in Pakistani politics and broaden Khan’s public appeal.

In and out of power

On July 25, 2018, Imran Khan’s Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) emerged as the largest political party in Pakistan, with 149 overall seats. The National Assembly then held sessions and PTI gained support from independent candidates for the required votes to form a coalition government. On August 17, 2018, Khan secured the required 176 votes in the 342-member assembly and became the 22nd Prime Minister of Pakistan.

During Khan’s short tenure, the government faced persistent criticism of “ineffective governance” and “economic distress” from opposition parties. In response, the Pakistan Democratic Movement (PDM), an eleven-party coalition, was formed in September 2020, with the aim of ousting Khan from power. Khan’s first attempt to bypass the no-confidence vote was thwarted by the country’s Supreme Court. Subsequently, a night session of the National Assembly on April 10, 2022 led to the downfall of Khan’s regime through a vote of no confidence.

Once Khan was removed from power, he blamed foreign conspiracies and took to the streets, continuing protests across the country along with his party supporters. These protests, known as the ‘Azadi Movement’, were against the ruling PDM coalition.

PTI protests against Imran Khan’s ouster in April 2022. Image via Wikimedia Commons by Voice of America. Public domain.

On November 3, 2022, Khan was shot in an assassination attempt, sustaining a leg injury, while delivering a speech to his party supporters in Wazirabad, a district in Punjab province.

On May 9, 2023, he was arrested on corruption charges related to the Al-Qadir trust case, which led to widespread riots and escalating violence. From the destruction of military and government facilities to the closure of crucial telecommunications services, it marked a peak of political unrest. According to statistics, five people lost their lives, while thousands were arrested in the aftermath of the chaos. On May 12, 2023, Khan was granted bail and released. High-profile party leaders were subsequently arrested, alongside significant departures of loyalists.

Keep Khan out of the elections

Ahead of the elections, Khan was arrested again on August 5, 2023, following the Islamabad High Court (IHC) verdict finding him guilty of corrupt activities in the Toshakhana case. He was sentenced to three years in prison, plus a fine. Following his conviction, the Election Commission of Pakistan (ECP) disqualified Imran Khan from office for five years, banning him from contesting the 2024 general elections.

In December 2023, the Supreme Court of Pakistan revoked PTI’s electoral symbol – the ‘bat’ – for the 2024 general elections. This decision forced the PTI candidates to stand as independent candidates, each with a clear electoral symbol, causing confusion and concern. However, this setback did not deter PTI supporters from supporting them. In the February 8, 2024 general elections, the PTI-backed alliance won 100 seats in the National Assembly, with PML-N coming second with 75 seats and PPP third with 54 seats.

After the results were announced, PTI launched nationwide protests, labeling the 2024 election process as ‘rigged’. Police launched another crackdown on the protesters, resulting in the arrest of hundreds of PTI supporters and members.

A new coalition government was formed, consisting of the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N), the Pakistan People’s Party (PPP) and others, and on March 4, Shehbaz Sharif was re-elected as Prime Minister. The new government kept the pressure on Khan as a two-week ban on all public visits, meetings and interviews was imposed at Adiala Prison in Rawalpindi on March 12.

The political future of PTI and Imran Khan

New York-based senior Pakistani journalist Wajahat Saeed Khan posted a video on YouTube examining Imran Khan’s tweets line by line, pinning the blame on the army chief. It is believed that the armed forces, often referred to as the ‘military establishment’, manipulate political affairs behind the scenes to influence them in their favor. According to a recent report, some judges were forced by military intelligence to allow them to hear an appeal against Khan.

Screenshot from a YouTube video ‘Imran Khan’s Direct Attack on Asim Munir: Word by Word, Sentence by Sentence’ by Wajahat S. Khan. Fair use.

Khan’s ouster via a constitutional vote of no confidence was largely seen as a consequence of his falling out with the military. Since then, he has become increasingly confrontational with the military establishment. However, according to Wajahat S. Khan, the latest tweet marks a “tipping point” in the two-year conflict involving PTI. Moreover, Wajahat S. Khan interviewed PTI senior member Shandana Gulzar Khan, focusing on the details of the crackdown. Criticizing the military in such direct terms is likely to complicate Khan’s political future and reduce his chances of returning to power, Wajahat Khan noted.

Although Khan has been acquitted in some cases, dozens of other cases are still pending. PTI’s political future is clouded by uncertainty, complicated by Khan’s confrontational rhetoric against the military establishment. According to journalist Hamid Mir’s analysis of the main talk show “Aaj Shahzeb Khanzada Kay Saath” (“Today with Shahzeb Khanzada”), Imran Khan does not seem interested in contacts with top military officials. In a recent post, Khan emphasized his preference for prison over entering into negotiations. With ongoing legal battles, renewed crackdown on PTI members and supporters, anti-army rhetoric and other threats, PTI’s political future remains in doubt.