The power plant rule is expected to accelerate the shift away from coal

The government said Thursday it will require coal-fired power stations and new gas-fired power stations to install carbon capture technology to reduce 90 percent of the plant’s emissions – or find another way to achieve equivalent climate protection.

But experts say that instead of trying to meet these demands, Coal-fired power stations may be retiring.

“What we have seen, even without these rules, is that coal production is declining,” Christopher Knittelsaid a professor of applied economics at MIT.

“These new rules will certainly provide an impetus accelerate that transition,” he added.

The Environmental Protection Agency’s analysis shows the rule could accelerate the amount of coal energy coming offline by almost a quarter between the years 2028 and 2035.

It is projected that without the rule there would be 84 gigawatts of coal power still retired during that period. But under the rule, that number increases to 104 gigawatts of power.

Research firm BloombergNEF has similar findings for this decade.

Specialist in industrial decarbonization Julia Attwood said her company also projects significant impacts on the coal sector. She estimated that about 44 gigawatts of coal power would retire by the end of 2030 anyway, but the rule will cause another 30 to 40 gigawatts to go offline during that period..

The EPA projects that renewable energy will be 4 percent larger than it would be without the rule by 2030although this decreases over the years as renewables also grow in the base case, meaning the rules will only produce 1 percent more renewable energy in 2040.

Find out more when a full report comes online this weekend at TheHill.com.