Is the West’s influence on the continent waning? – First post

The United States wants to withdraw its troops from Chad, a landlocked country in Africa’s Sahel region. The move is temporary. But that doesn’t mean it’s unimportant.

It points to a trend of declining military influence of the West in Africa, and especially in the Sahel region. The withdrawal of French and American troops from various countries is proof of this.

We explain what the trend has been, what has driven it and how Russia and Iran have become embroiled in this war for greater military influence on the resource-rich continent.

US troops withdraw from Chad

Earlier this month, Chad’s air chief demanded a halt to US operations at an airbase near N’Djamena. On Thursday, US officials said they planned to temporarily leave their troops out of the country.

The development marked a cooling in U.S. relations with Chad, which has been a crucial partner in the fight against the Islamist insurgency in West Africa.

Chad’s move is yet another sign of the West’s declining military influence in the region. This is a very noticeable trend.

A trend of declining military influence

Recent shifts in Western military influence in Africa have been evident with significant troop withdrawals by the US and France.

In Niger, the new military junta ended a military cooperation treaty with the US after a coup that deposed the president last year. That meant the US was kicked out of a country that hosts one of its most important bases in Africa.

In fact, about a thousand American troops will withdraw from the country within a few months.

Niger has already driven out the French troops. Paris ended its military operations in the West African country in December 2023, marking an abrupt end to a decade-long presence aimed at fighting Islamist insurgents.

These exits, especially by France, are part of a broader pattern. Military juntas in the region, including those in Burkina Faso and Mali, have pushed for the severance of long-standing security ties with France following coups in the country between 2020 and 2022.

The role of the European Union is also questionable. There is distrust among the African population towards several countries that are part of the bloc. Usually the reason is the role of these countries as colonizers. The memory of the colonial era is still fresh in the collective consciousness of many citizens of these countries.

Another aspect of this is the EU’s failure to maintain peace in the region. The cessation of terrorist activities, the main reason behind the presence of European troops in the region, remains widespread. But that is not everything.

The bloc had funded military training in Mali and Niger, mainly with the aim of countering extremism linked to al-Qaeda. Some of the EU-trained people subsequently played a role in coups that overthrew governments.

Russia and Iran are filling the power vacuum

While the West’s military influence in the region has been declining, that of countries like Russia and Iran has seemingly become more prominent.

The Wagner Group, a nominally private Russian military company described by U.S. officials as a “proxy military force of the Kremlin,” has expanded its operations. The group is active in countries such as the Central African Republic, Libya, Mali and Sudan. Wagner has also made attempts to contact Burkina Faso and has been accused of attempting to destabilize Chad’s government.

The Russian state itself has been actively involved. In 2023, the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) noted in 2023 that Russia’s influence in Africa is increasing, with Moscow having signed military cooperation agreements with 43 African countries. Russia’s strategy appears to be exploiting anti-Western sentiment to strengthen ties across the continent.

Iran’s increasing role is particularly marked by the export of military drones, which have had significant battlefield consequences. In Sudan, Iranian drones have played a crucial role in favor of Sudanese forces during the civil war, helping to regain territory around the capital. Similarly, in Ethiopia, the military has credited Iranian-supplied drones, including from other countries, with turning the tide in a year-old civil war against Tigrayan rebels in 2021.

A complicated geopolitical landscape

Although Paris has reduced its presence in Africa, it still maintains military bases in countries such as Ivory Coast, Senegal, Gabon, Djibouti and Chad. The US also has significant military influence in Zambia, Burundi, Angola, D’jibouti and several other countries.

These remaining points of support indicate that the extent of Western military influence, although it has diminished, is by no means small.

Africa is thus poised to navigate a complex future, balancing traditional partnerships with Western militaries with increasing influence from countries like Russia and Iran. Not to mention the role played by terrorist organizations, local militias and juntas.

With input from authorities

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