Ukraine strengthens mobilization as war continues

Management summary:

• The Ukrainian government has passed a controversial law to boost mobilization as the army’s need to recruit soldiers grows in the face of an expected Russian offensive.
• As the war continues, Kiev may have to take more extreme measures, such as mobilizing its citizens living in the European Union.
• Ukraine’s Western partners risk emboldening Russia if the country fails to maintain consistent and timely levels of support.

On April 16, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky signed a law to strengthen mobilization measures. The law mandates several changes, including lowering the mobilization age from 27 to 25 and removing the “limited fitness” option, which allowed drafted civilians with limited physical capabilities to serve in rear units. Under the new rules, all eligible men must appear in person at recruitment centers for physical examination to increase the pool of potential draftees. These changes are a continuation of the new regulations introduced in August 2023, which reduced exemptions for physical exams and relaxed the requirements to join the airborne assault troops and marines (Ukrainian military pages, September 2, 2023, (1), (2)). Both Russia and Ukraine are relaxing their regulations on military personnel, signaling that both sides are in desperate need of reinforcements beyond their borders.

The rules for postponement have also changed. Men who have three or more children, whose wives have sick parents and no other able-bodied relatives to help care for them, or whose wives have a disability and no other relatives to care for them, are eligible. exemption. However, the state categorizes disabilities into varying levels of severity, and men whose wives have disabilities that the state classifies as minor are not exempt (LigaZakon.net, April 10). The exemptions for civil servants and employees of local governments will also be reduced, as no more than 50 percent of eligible conscripts can be assigned to the reserves. In contrast, business owners considered crucial to the economy will be sent to reserves even if they do not work in their own businesses (Telegram.me/getmantsevdanil, April 9). This shift demonstrates the Ukrainian military’s growing need for soldiers and aid in the face of an expected Russian offensive.

Implementing many of these changes will not happen immediately or without problems. Currently the mobilization reserve numbers less than four million men (Texty.org.ua, April 3rd). This is due to several factors. For starters, a significant number of military-age men are impossible to track. There are nearly 950,000 men between the ages of 25 and 60 for whom the state has only individual tax ID numbers, but no other information. These men have no registered workplaces, past or present; tax history; military service; or other identifying information related to their name (Ukrainian Pravda, February 14th). They simply exist as a tax number. In addition, approximately 413,000 Ukrainian men are 25 or 26 years old, and it is estimated that a third are exempt from mobilization, leaving 270,000.Texty.org.ua, April 3rd). However, the government does not know how many of these men are already in the military, currently in Ukraine or living abroad. Whether these issues will have a tangible impact on the mobilization process remains to be seen.

The mobilization is likely to weaken the Ukrainian economy. It will create an urgent need for new workers who can pay taxes and military bonds to take their place. If Kiev cannot find these workers, the economy will be even more dependent on injections of foreign money. This situation is reminiscent of a similar circumstance during the Vietnam War, when the United States provided aid to South Vietnam to keep its economy afloat. However, when the United States cut aid in 1974, South Vietnam’s economy, military, and government collapsed. Ukraine will need continued assistance to sustain its economy and continue to defend its territory. An economic collapse would create a major opening for Russia (to see EDMJuly 26, 2023; Ukrainian PravdaFebruary 14th; Texty.org.ua, April 3rd; Webb, ‘The Joint Chiefs of Staff and the Vietnam War 1969-1970’, 2002).

Ukrainian lawmakers have included incentives in the new mobilization law to encourage volunteers. The Verkhovna Rada (Ukrainian Parliament) has agreed to provide frontline soldiers and law enforcement officers with a one-time bonus of 70,000 hryvnias ($1,800) (Ukrainian Pravda, April 16). These and other incentives reflect the discontent the law has sparked in Ukrainian society, as it has not provided clear guidelines on the demobilization of soldiers who have been serving for months.Ukrainian Pravda, April 10). If the war requires more soldiers, the Ukrainian government will have little choice but to expand mobilization.

The low quality of military training centers is another major problem. Most centers are barely able to train recruits in basic combat knowledge. There are only two high-quality training centers available in the country for the entire Ukrainian army, the 151st and the 142nd. The first was made by volunteers with the help of the then Commander-in-Chief of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, General Valeriy Zaluzhny. The second training center is run by the Special Operations Forces of Ukraine, an elite paramilitary unit that carries out top-secret operations. However, beyond these exceptions, the quality of Ukrainian military personnel is beginning to decline compared to that of the Russian military. Ukraine’s elite training centers cannot cope with the growing demand for recruits.Radio SvobodaMarch 2nd; Telegram.me/romandonik, 4th of March). Yet the mobilization capabilities of the Ukrainian and Russian armies are currently approximately equal. This parity has allowed the Kremlin to postpone a new wave of mobilization, giving Putin the opportunity to raise it at a more politically strategic moment.Dzen.ruApril 10; New voice of Ukraine11 April).

Ukraine will need the help of partners to resolve the situation. While EU training for Ukrainian soldiers has been crucial in leveling the playing field, recent changes in mobilization indicate that Kyiv may need to take more extreme measures. This could include mobilizing Ukrainian citizens currently living in the European Union. Nearly 800,000 men aged 18 to 64 – excluding those in EU countries with a visa, without a visa or with a work residence permit – aged 18 to 64 are under temporary protection in EU Member States (Eurostataccessed April 24).

The inability to find an exit strategy has forced Ukraine to look for every possible tactic to stay in the war. Ukraine’s Western partners, in turn, risk emboldening Russia if they fail to maintain consistent and timely levels of support. An emboldened Russia will not be afraid to turn its sights to the Baltic states, and Western leaders should consider this possibility when determining how to help Ukraine. The recent approval of US aid gives hope that Kyiv’s partners will join this call.

The mobilization of male Ukrainians of military age in the European Union is in Brussels’ interest to prevent hostilities from spreading. Before this becomes a reality, all possible options must be exhausted, including the mobilization of Ukrainians. Otherwise, Ukraine will once again be left alone and forced to act as if it were violating human rights by banning the issuance of passports to men abroad.Portal of the Ukrainian government, April 23). At the very beginning of World War II, an agreement was concluded between France and Poland to mobilize Polish citizens in France and create a Polish army on French territory. They were trained and given uniforms with weapons from the French army. Paris was thus able to mobilize almost 60,000 Poles and form and train various divisions. Poles are already talking about helping to send men with Ukrainian citizenship to Ukraine. However, it would be better to repeat the past and prepare and equip, rather than deport, alliance military units in an effort to form combat-ready brigades with veterans of the Ukrainian Armed Forces.Rodm-krakau.placcessed April 24; ReutersApril 24). Hoping to de-imperialize and demilitarize Russia, European leaders can play an important role in helping Ukraine find recruits. Otherwise, Ukraine will lose more ground on the front and leave open the possibility of its neighbors becoming the next victims of the Russian Empire.