Adu Domfeh: Man-made climate change is a major contributor to the deadly heatwave in West Africa/Sahel

The recent deadly heatwave in the Sahel and West Africa with temperatures above 45°C would not have been possible without human-induced climate change, according to a rapid analysis by an international team of leading climate scientists from the World Weather Attribution group .

In late March and early April, extreme heat hit countries in the Sahel and West Africa. The highest temperature occurred on April 3, when Mali recorded a temperature of 48.5°C.

In Bamako, Gabriel-Toure Hospital announced an increase in deaths, with 102 deaths in the first four days of April. About half were over the age of 60, and the hospital reports heat likely played a role in many of the deaths.

A lack of data in affected countries makes it impossible to know how many people have died. However, it is likely that hundreds or possibly thousands of other heat-related deaths have occurred.

Climate change, caused by the burning of fossil fuels such as oil, coal and gas, and other human activities, is making heat waves around the world more frequent, longer and hotter.

“The heat of early April in the Sahel and West Africa was extraordinary – for almost a week daytime temperatures were well above 40°C, while nighttime temperatures reached 30°C in some regions,” said Clair Barnes, researcher at Grantham Institute. Climate Change and the Environment, Imperial College London.

“Our study joins a body of evidence linking dangerous heat to warming caused by fossil fuel emissions.”

Quantifying the human factor

To quantify the effect of human-induced warming on extreme temperatures in the Sahel and West Africa, scientists analyzed weather data and climate models to compare how these types of events have changed the current climate, with global warming of approximately 1.2°C. the cooler pre-industrial climate using peer-reviewed methods.

The analysis looked at the five-day average of maximum daily temperatures in two areas: an area covering the southern regions of Mali and Burkina Faso, where the heat was most extreme, and a larger area covering regions of Niger, Nigeria, Benin, Togo, Ghana, Ivory Coast, Mauritania, Senegal, Gambia, Guinea-Bissau and Guinea, where temperatures were well above 40°C.

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Kiswendsida Guigma, climate scientist at the Red Cross Red Crescent Climate Center in Burkina Faso, said: “Heat is a part of life all year round in the Sahel and regions of West Africa. However, the extreme temperatures were unprecedented in many places and the rise in deaths reported by Gabriel-Toure Hospital in Mali underlined how dangerous the heat was.

“To some, a heat wave that gets 1.4 or 1.5°C warmer due to climate change may not sound like a big increase.

“But this extra heat would have been the difference between life and death for many people.”

To investigate the high nighttime temperatures, which can be dangerous if the human body cannot rest and recover, the researchers also analyzed the five-day average of minimum temperatures for the Mali and Burkina Faso region.

The scientists found that both daytime and nighttime heat waves would have been impossible in both regions if humans had not warmed the planet by burning fossil fuels such as oil, coal and gas, and with other activities such as deforestation.

Climate change increased maximum temperatures by 1.5°C and night temperatures by 2°C for the Burkina Faso and Mali region, and five-day daytime temperatures by 1.4°C higher for the wider region.

Recent heat wave rare

A heat wave like the recent one is still relatively rare, even in the current climate with a warming of 1.2°C, the researchers found. In the wider region of West Africa, similar high daytime temperatures can be expected about once every thirty years. However, daytime temperatures like those in Mali and Burkina Faso, where heat-related fatalities have been reported, are expected about once every 200 years.

But these types of events will become much more common and even more dangerous unless the world moves away from fossil fuels and countries quickly reduce emissions to net zero. If global warming reaches 2°C, as expected in the 2040s or 2050s, unless emissions are stopped quickly, similar events will occur ten times more often.

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The researchers also quantified the possible influence of El Niño on the heat, but found that its effect was not significant compared to the influence of human-induced climate change.

The study highlights factors that have exacerbated the effects of heat across the region. The heat occurred at the end of Ramadan, when many Muslims fast during the day. The Sahel region has a large Muslim population and while high temperatures are common in April, researchers say the brutal heat during the day and at night would have been overwhelming for many people who abstained from food and water.

They also note that conflict, poverty, limited access to safe drinking water, rapid urbanization and strained healthcare systems have likely exacerbated the impact.

Heat action plans that outline emergency responses to dangerous heat are extremely effective in reducing heat-related deaths during heat waves. However, both Burkina Faso and Mali do not have one.

Given the increasing risk of dangerous heat in the Sahel and West Africa, the researchers say developing heat action plans will help save lives and reduce the burden of extreme heat on healthcare systems.

Finally, the researchers say that Gabriel-Toure Hospital’s rapid reporting of heat-related deaths provided a valuable illustration of the dangers of extreme heat, which would likely have served as an effective warning to people in the region.

“Attribution studies like this clearly show that if the world continues to burn fossil fuels, the climate will continue to warm and vulnerable people will continue to die,” says Friederike Otto, senior lecturer in climate science at the Grantham Institute – Climate Change and the Environment, Imperial College London.

“In the future, this increasingly clear link between fossil fuel emissions and heat-related deaths will likely be used in lawsuits against fossil fuel companies.”

The research was conducted by 19 researchers as part of the World Weather Attribution group, including scientists from universities, organizations and meteorological agencies in Nigeria, Burkina Faso, Switzerland, Sweden, South Africa, the Netherlands, Germany, the United Kingdom and the United States. States. .

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