The Maldives is in the shadow of the rivalry between India and China

Mohamed Muizzu won the 2023 Maldives presidential election – Copyright AFP SIMON MAINA

The Maldives will vote on Sunday in parliamentary elections that are likely to test President Mohamed Muizzu’s tilt toward China and away from India, the luxury tourism hotspot’s traditional benefactor.

Best known as one of the most expensive holiday destinations in South Asia, with pristine white beaches and secluded resorts, the strategic Indian Ocean island has also become a geopolitical hotspot.

The global east-west shipping routes pass through the national chain of 1,192 small coral islands, which stretch about 800 kilometers (500 miles) across the equator.

President Mohamed Muizzu, 45, won last September’s presidential election as a proxy for pro-China ex-president Abdulla Yameen, who was released this week after a court overturned his 11-year prison sentence for corruption.

This month he awarded high-profile infrastructure contracts to Chinese state-owned companies as the parliamentary election campaign was in full swing.

His government is also in the process of sending home a garrison of 89 Indian troops flying reconnaissance aircraft donated by New Delhi to patrol the archipelago’s vast maritime borders.

The current parliament, dominated by his immediate predecessor Ibrahim Mohamed Solih’s pro-India Maldivian Democratic Party (MDP), has tried to thwart his efforts to realign the archipelago’s diplomacy.

“Geopolitics is playing a big role in the background as the parties campaign for votes in Sunday’s elections,” a senior Muizzu aide told AFP, asking not to be named.

“He came to power promising to send Indian troops back and he is working on that. Parliament has not cooperated with him since he came to power.”

Since Muizzu came to power, lawmakers have blocked three of his cabinet nominees and rejected several of his spending proposals.

The splits in all major political parties, including Muizzu’s People’s National Congress (PNC), are expected to make it difficult for a single party to win a majority.

But Muizzu’s prospects got a boost this week when his mentor Yameen was released from house arrest this week.

A court in the capital Male ordered a retrial in the corruption and money laundering cases in which Yameen was sent to prison after he lost a re-election bid in 2018.

Yameen had also supported closer alignment with Beijing when in power, but his conviction prevented him from contesting last year’s presidential election on his own.

Instead, he nominated Muizzu as a proxy, and after leaving the Supreme Court on Thursday, Yameen vowed to continue the ongoing anti-India campaign that helped his ally win.

About 285,000 Maldivians are eligible to vote on Sunday, with results likely early the next day.