The dynamics of geopolitics

Last week, some of us wrote an open letter to the President and the leadership of the National Assembly, drawing their attention to the information we received that Nigeria was in discussions with the United States and France, who are seeking our country’s permission to conduct military establish bases. . We strongly advise against this. We also launched a signature campaign on www.change.org seeking the support of all patriotic Nigerians – “Sovereign Declaration: United Against Military Bases in Nigeria”. The campaign is still running and we continue to ask for your support. Three days after the publication of our open letter, the Federal Government responded through the Minister of Information that it: “is aware of false alarms being raised in some quarters regarding alleged discussions between the Federal Government of Nigeria and a number of other countries regarding the establishment of foreign military bases in the country. We urge the general public to completely ignore this untruth. The federal government is not having such a discussion with any other country. We have not received or are considering any proposals from any country for the establishment of foreign military bases in Nigeria. The US and French governments have also denied having military bases in Nigeria. We welcome the government’s immediate denial as the best possible response, as they will not publicly accept that they have indeed been in discussions with these countries. Our goal must be their goal, which is that we will not accept our sovereignty being compromised by foreign nations. Yet we know enough to remain vigilant.

Central to our concerns is the importance of responding to the current geopolitical dynamics in our region, and indeed the world, in a way that protects our sovereignty. America’s global hegemony has been challenged by many countries and emerging powers such as Russia, China and India, and as they are pushed out of the countries hitherto under their control, they have sought new homes for their military adventurism . West Africa is also in turmoil. The return of the army to power in Mali, Guinea, Burkina Faso and Niger was accompanied by a patriotic and organized campaign against France as the architect of the underdevelopment of the French-speaking countries and as the saboteur of the fight against violent extremism in the Sahel. Since 1990, as many as 78% of the 27 coups in sub-Saharan Africa have taken place in French-speaking states, where France has had a strong voice in their affairs. No wonder the recent coup makers in these countries moved quickly to keep the French at bay by expelling them.

Historically, French colonial rule established political systems designed to extract valuable resources while using repressive strategies to maintain control after ‘independence’. The British did the same. The difference was that while Britain quickly learned to give up maintaining the colonial system after independence, France persisted in nurturing and maintaining it. The French were very extensive in retaining neo-colonial institutions such as the CFA franc, which is pegged to the euro and guaranteed by France, as their currency. Their foreign reserves are held by France under conditions that benefit the French economy. France also forged defense deals, regularly intervening militarily on behalf of unpopular pro-French leaders to keep them in power. In many cases, this behavior strengthened the hand of corrupt and abusive figures such as former President of Chad Idriss Deby, President Paul Biya of Cameroon and former Burkinabe President Blaise Compaoré.

Worse, the relationship between many French political leaders and their allies in Africa was often corrupt, creating a powerful and wealthy elite at the expense of African citizens. François-Xavier Verschave, a leading French economist, coined the term Francafrique to refer to a neocolonial relationship hidden by “the secret criminality in the upper echelons of French politics and economics.” Although recent French governments have attempted to distance themselves from Francafrique, there are constant reminders of the problematic relations between France, French business interests and Africa, including a number of embarrassing corruption cases.

Meanwhile, the Russians have made inroads into the region through the controversial leader of the Wagner Group, Yevgeny Prigozhin, who died in August 2023 when his plane was blown out of the sky. He had built populist bridges to French-speaking Africa. His talents included developing elaborate and sophisticated ways of weaponizing the real and profound history of Francafrique, fearfully maintaining his colonial hold on the governments and resources of French-speaking Africa for his own interest, while feigning liberation suggested. The aim was to instead introduce Russian neo-colonial control over the said countries through the installation of military dictatorships. His method is based on deliberate and persistent manipulation via social media. The geopolitical agenda then became a replacement of American and French neo-colonialism with Russian and perhaps also Chinese.

As far as Francafrique is concerned, the Wagner approach consisted of years of bombarding French-speaking Africa with images via Facebook, WhatsApp, Tic Tok, Twitter and other media showing that France was actively supplying weapons to jihadists to keep terrorism active. Prigozhin used his Internet Research Agency (IRA), an online “troll farm,” and the Association for Free Research and International Cooperation (AFRIC) for the work. Today in French-speaking Africa, information dominance exists, which means that terrorism continues to exist thanks to France and the solution is to involve the Russians.

A number of sophisticated social media influencers emerged to lead the advocacy for Russia as a solution. They include Nathalie Yanm (@Nath_Yamb), Kemi Seba (@KemiSeba), a French citizen originally from the Republic of Benin, and a French teacher @FranklinNyamsi with Cameroonian roots. They are leading the social media campaign and have also been active in facilitating the Russia-Africa summits. Over the past five years they have managed to create a strong link between the idea that France should be thrown out, which all patriotic Africans support, and that Russia is the way forward. Kemi Seba, who recently tore up his French passport, has argued that turning to Russia is a tactical move to support African countries while they take on France and not a strategic move because they do not want to replace French with Russian, Chinese or Turkish neo -Republicans. -colonialism. The risk is that once the Russians seize power, they will be in no hurry to leave. Africans must accept the imperative that the goal of combating neocolonialism must be autonomy, not the replacement of a neocolonial power. I am particularly concerned about the presentation of military vanguardism as the path to salvation, especially since the current generation of African youth has no experience or knowledge of the negative consequences of military dictatorship.

The fact is, however, that despite significant funding and troops, the French- and American-led international response to Islamist uprisings in the Sahel region has failed to enable West African governments to regain control of their territories. This has been clearly stated by the junta leaders in Niger, Burkina Faso and Mali. The people of these countries accept this assessment and therefore support the military as an alternative.

But despite all the mistakes France has made over the years in its dealings with its former colonies in Africa, the instability currently experienced by French-speaking states cannot be blamed solely on it. During the Cold War, Britain and the United States also bailed out a number of dictators in exchange for their loyalty, from Daniel Arap Moi in Kenya to Mobutu Sese Seko in what was then Zaire, now the Democratic Republic of Congo. The strong relationship between coups and the former colonial power was also much less present in previous eras. Four of the countries that have experienced the highest number of coup attempts since 1952 are Nigeria (8), Ghana (10), Sierra Leone (10) and Sudan (17), all of which experienced British rule.

I conclude by saying that Nigeria has missed the opportunity to be a founding member of the BRICS, which has been looking for doors for our countries to escape neo-colonial control. We need to resume that conversation as soon as possible. In finding a way forward, we must not abandon our foreign policy approach of non-alignment and the pursuit of our national interests based on preserving our sovereignty and autonomy.