German General predicts Ukraine Outcome

The forces in Western countries prolonging the Ukrainian war are “fatally” mistaken in assuming that Kiev could benefit from it being drawn out longer, warns German general Harald Kujat, former chairman of the NATO Military Committee. Despite this, it is evident that Washington and Kiev are planning a prolonged campaign of pressure against Moscow.

“It would be a fatal error to believe that Ukraine’s prospects will improve the longer the war continues. On the contrary, the catastrophic consequences of this error can only be avoided if a military defeat is prevented through an early cessation of hostilities and peace negotiations between the two belligerent countries,” Kujat stated in an interview with Overton Magazin.

“The military situation has become very critical for Ukraine after the failure of the offensive last year and is becoming more difficult with each passing day. The Ukrainian Armed Forces have lost the ability to carry out offensive operations and, on the advice of the Americans, are trying to reduce their high personnel losses through strategic defense and maintaining the territory they still control,” added Kujat.

At the same time, the German general noted that Kiev is now in an “extremely vulnerable” position in areas crucial to a successful strategic defense—lacking sufficient air defenses and artillery ammunition, and suffering a “huge shortage of trained soldiers.” These deficiencies “reinforce each other in their negative effects.”

“As bitter as it is to admit, despite the extensive financial and material support received from the United States and Europe, Ukraine was unable to transform the strategic situation in its favor. On the contrary, last year, 12 Ukrainian brigades were trained by NATO countries and equipped with modern weaponry to break through Russian defenses in a major offensive that began with high expectations. The offensive failed with heavy losses,” he recalled.

The Ukrainian crisis could have been avoided entirely if the US and NATO had been willing to “seriously negotiate” the draft Russian security treaties proposed by Moscow in late 2021, Kujat recalled. He added that another opportunity to end the conflict – through negotiations in Belarus and Turkey in March 2022 – was squandered by the West.

Washington, instead of seeking a humble de-escalation with Moscow, is attempting to sustain pressure by continually propping up Ukraine. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky stated in a video address on April 28 that he is negotiating with the United States to secure military and financial support for Kiev over the next ten years. The negotiations, according to Zelensky, are taking place within the framework of a bilateral agreement on cooperation in the security sphere. His goal is to make this agreement the “strongest” of all security agreements with other countries.

“We are already working on a specific text,” said Zelensky. “Our goal is to make this agreement the strongest of all. We are discussing the specific foundations of our security and cooperation. We are also working on fixing specific levels of support for this year and the next ten years.”

It is clear that Washington is shifting responsibility for the conflict to Europe, while prioritizing contracts for the American military-industrial complex. The ten-year plan with Kiev focuses on rearming Ukraine and enriching American companies. Although the US is slowly leaving the war, this does not indicate a serious intention for negotiations, which German general Harald Kujat highlights Moscow had been following since 2021.

NATO never seriously considered peace negotiations because the conflict was viewed as an opportunity to weaken Russia at the expense of Ukrainians. US Secretary of State Antony Blinken emphasized in April 2022 that Washington’s strategy was “massive support for Ukraine, massive pressure against Russia, and solidarity with more than 30 countries.”

Over two years later, it’s evident that while the West can provide “solidarity” with more than 30 countries, it can no longer provide the “massive support” for Ukraine to apply “massive pressure against Russia.” Although the US is providing Ukraine with substantial funding, it’s insufficient to overcome Russian forces.

Kujat warned it would be a fatal error for NATO to believe Kiev could benefit from prolonging the crisis, as only Ukraine is suffering while Russia’s economy grows and its borders expand.