Ottawa touts progress on defense spending despite missing NATO’s 2% target | Analysis

The Canadian government praises her new defense strategy as an important step toward modernization, while downplaying the country’s inability to meet spending targets agreed with allies.

The policy announced in April, dubbed “Our North, Strong and Free,” promises about $73 billion in new military spending over the next 20 years, including $8 billion over the next five years.

“Our defense spending alone will increase by 27% next year,” Defense Minister Bill Blair said in a May 1 speech to the Canadian Global Affairs Institute in Ottawa.

That increase in spending includes the purchase of approximately 140 new combat aircraft, including Lockheed Martin F-35A fighter jets and Boeing P-8 maritime patrol aircraft, in addition to some $30 billion focused on modernizations at the joint Canada-US North American Aerospace Defense Command (NORAD).

In particular, the NORAD improvements focus on new over-the-horizon radars that Blair says will give the Colorado Springs command a “clear 360-degree view of incoming threats.”

What Ottawa’s new military strategy does not do is meet the defense spending agreed upon by all NATO members in 2023.

The heads of state of the Euro-Atlantic military alliance formally pledged at a summit in Lithuania last summer that they would each spend the equivalent of at least 2% of gross domestic product on defense.

That goal was first established as a guideline in 2014.

Canada is a continued laggard in this regard, with the latest NATO figures leaving Ottawa’s spending at less than 1.5% of Canada’s GDP.

Blair acknowledges that the Our North plan will fail to meet the 2% target even in 20 years. However, the Toronto Police Chief Minister says the plan will deliver significant improvements, in line with the spirit of the NATO treaty.

“That is clearly less than 2%,” he admits. “But it amounts to an almost tripling of defense spending,” Blair added, referring to the start of the current Liberal government in 2015 under Prime Minister Justin Trudeau.

Whether fellow NATO members arrive at a similar interpretation remains to be seen. However, Blair seems optimistic about the issue.

“We are on a strong upward trajectory,” he says. “I have been able to reassure our allies that we know we must do more.”

“Canada is and will do its part,” the defense minister added.

Ottawa’s current arms splurge, which includes both new aircraft and naval ships, represents Canada’s largest military modernization since World War II.

Blair says “task number one” for the effort will be “protecting every inch of Canda’s sovereignty,” with a particular emphasis on the Far North.

While natural geography has ensured the safety of Canada’s Arctic and northern regions in recent decades, Blair argues that protection alone can no longer be relied on – thanks to thinning sea ice and modern military technology.

Data cited by Ottawa shows that the Arctic is experiencing temperature warming four times the global average, “making it more accessible and attractive to our competitors,” Blair notes.

Canada’s latest defense strategy predicts that the Arctic Ocean could be the most efficient shipping route between Europe and Asia by the year 2050.

“Russia and China see the Arctic as key to expanding their influence,” Blair said.

Both states are investing in long-range cruise missiles, new submarines and hypersonic weapons that are faster and harder to detect, according to Ottawa, eliminating North America’s previous geographic advantages in the Arctic.

Blair says the new investments in long-range radars, stealth fighters and patrol aircraft will “greatly improve” Canada’s ability to detect threats from the North.

“It’s already overdue, it’s necessary and it’s going to happen,” he says, noting that most new platforms will reach initial operational capacity between 2026 and 2030.

The new defense strategy is also intended to provide Canadian industry with a stable and predictable revenue stream that will support long-term increases in ammunition production.