It’s time for closer cooperation between Japan and the US on climate security – the diplomat

On April 10, Japan and the United States reached a historic agreement to improve their relationship “global partners”, a remarkable transformation from their status as adversaries in World War II more than 80 years ago. This new partnership includes several new strategic initiatives, with the two countries agreeing to work together and share resources in a wide range of areas, from defense and technology to climate and diplomacy. Importantly, the recent joint statement reflects an emerging realization that climate change poses complex security challenges that require enhanced defense and security cooperation between Japan and the US.

Climate change as a security issue has not received much attention in Japan’s national security planning and operations. Japan’s newest National Security Strategy (NSS), published in 2022, marked a milestone as it recognized for the first time that “climate change is a security issue that affects the survival of humanity.” The link between climate and security is also addressed in the first paragraph with the statement that “a large number of issues such as climate change… are emerging, which require cross-border cooperation among nations” as they “affect Japan’s national security in various ways.”

In addition to the strategic level recognition of climate security, Japan’s defense sector has taken more concrete steps. By 2022, the Ministry of Defense (MoD) will have a Climate change response strategy, which outlined ten actions to achieve three main objectives (1) adaptation and response to the future impacts of climate change, (2) carbon neutrality, and (3) greenhouse gas reductions within the defense sector. This initiative followed the establishment of a Climate Change Task Force in 2021. These developments are important because they show that Defense recognizes that efforts to tackle climate change are compatible with military capabilities and activities.

Despite these positive developments, translating this rhetoric into tangible action has been a challenge. This is evident in the general tone of Japan’s latest NSS, where concerns are still largely dominated by geopolitical and traditional security issues. Japan’s traditional security mindset, which prioritizes threats like Russia and China, makes it challenging to incorporate climate risks into established security frameworks.

Prime Minister Kishida Fumio has certainly focused on strengthening Japan’s defensive capabilities amid growing concerns about China’s assertiveness and North Korean provocations. His government also recently approved a record 7.95 trillion yen (about $55.9 billion). defense budget for the fiscal year 2024. However, the link between climate and security has still received less attention from his government. Herein lies an opportunity for Japan to deepen integration with the US security agenda and strengthen its role as a global partner for the future.

In contrast, the United States has brought climate change as a security issue to the forefront of its national security planning and operations over the past two decades, with the Obama and the Biden administration making significant progress in securing climate change. In particular, the US NSS 2022 identified climate change as the “shared problem” that is “the largest and potentially existential problem for all countries,” placing it at the center of national security policymaking to an unprecedented degree, alongside strategic competition with China and Russia, and the importance of domestic industrial policy and investment. It also recognized the Indo-Pacific as the “epicenter of the climate crisis” and “vital to climate solutions.”

This focus on the link between climate and security continued in the United States US National Defense Strategy 2022 (NDS), underscoring its importance in national security strategy and planning. The NDS explicitly recognized climate change as a “dangerous transboundary threat” that is transforming the operational context for the US Department of Defense. By prioritizing resilience and adaptability, and integrating climate change into threat assessments, the NDS has firmly established climate change as a critical security issue for the U.S. defense sector.

Meanwhile, if a ‘threat multiplier’, climate change threatens to exacerbate existing tensions, instability and conflict in the Indo-Pacific region by increasing competition over scarce resources. Fishing in particular is a focal point of conflict. Declining fish stocks due to overfishing and climate change are a major problem in the region Indo-Pacific region, where many countries rely heavily on fishing for their food and livelihoods. This shortage could exacerbate existing maritime disputes and territorial conflicts in the region.

Amid these developments, China, which operates the world’s largest deep-water fishing fleet, has been accused of engaging in widespread illegal, unreported and unregulated fishing practices. These practices deplete fish stocks in the exclusive economic zones from neighboring countries. As fish populations continue to decline, competition for remaining resources could increase tensions and potential conflict between China and rival claimants in the region.

The South China Sea, a region rich in marine biodiversity, is a particular hotspot. Overfishing and climate change are seriously depleting fish stocks in the region. China has one annual summer fishing ban in the South China Sea since 1999, which it claims promotes the sustainable development of marine fisheries and improves its ecology. However, Vietnam And the Philippines have criticized the ban as violating their sovereignty over the disputed Paracel and Spratly Islands and surrounding waters. Tensions further escalated in 2020 when a Chinese Coast Guard (CCG) ship arrived rammed and sank a Vietnamese fishing boat in the disputed waters. In 2022, these countries condemned the ban and urged their governments to oppose it as it impacts the livelihoods of their fishermen, although defying the ban could lead to confrontations with the CCG.

In response to these challenges, closer cooperation between Japan and the US on climate security can serve as a counterbalance. It can help counter activities that undermine established rule of law to maintain regional stability, deter potential conflict, and protect their shared vision of a free and open Indo-Pacific. Building on this, the prospect of Japan aligning more closely with the US on the climate security agenda could move Japan forward on two important fronts.

First, Japan can benefit from the United States’ experiences in this area, with the U.S. military already leading the way in tackling the threats of climate change. This could include greater military-to-military cooperation in responding and adapting military infrastructure and operations to the impacts of climate change, and sharing intelligence on climate-related risks. Such cooperation could help strengthen Japan’s military capabilities and allow the two allies to better prepare for and respond to shared vulnerabilities.

For example, the US military’s approach to climate change, which involves integrating it “climate literacy” in its training programs and increasing cold weather training exercises due to the strategic importance of the Arctic, provides valuable lessons for Japan to prepare its personnel to operate in climatic conditions affected by climate change.

Moreover, the US military proactive response to climate-induced disasters, such as considering climate impacts when basing decisions and planning for environmental changes at coastal installations, and analyzing the consequences of major climate disasters such as Hurricane Michael on Tyndall Air Force Base (AFB) and flooding Offutt AFBprovides opportunities for sharing intelligence, analysis, and best practices between Japan and the United States.

Second, the climate security agenda can be a useful diplomatic tool for Japan to increase its presence and influence in Indo Pacific region. Japan is already committed to helping island states and other developing countries in the region where climate change poses an immediate threat build sustainable and resilient economies and societies, as stated in the NSS 2022. Closer cooperation with the US on climate security means that Japan the U.S. resources and capabilities to increase climate resilience and adaptation efforts in third countries.

One possible strategy could be for the US to provide financial, technical and technological assistance to Japan’s Asia-Pacific Climate Change Adaptation Information Platform (AP-Plat) launched by Japan’s Ministry of Environment in 2019 to provide countries in Asia and the Pacific with data on climate impacts, supporting climate-informed policy and effective climate adaptation in the region. This can support not only regional stability but also Japan’s strategic interests as an indispensable stabilizing power.

If Japan wants to be a true “global partner” of the US, it must closely align its understanding and approach to the threats of climate change with its most important ally. Otherwise, deepening defense and security cooperation between the two countries will be challenging as they have different risk assessments and priorities. By elevating its climate security agenda and closely aligning it with that of the United States, Japan can firmly establish itself not only as a “global partner” alongside the US, but also as an agenda-setting leader amid the accelerating consequences for the climate.